the 41% plurality.

in this silly, wasteful Canadian federal election, there was a clear winner.

the 41% plurality, aka the clear winner, was the electorate who decided to fuck off, stay home, and not vote.

The people who wouldn’t be bothered to eat, destroy, mark in every box or write, “none of the above,” – they have decided the fate of the country.  They wear the crown of glory and take the honour of winning.

What! you say. How could it be that the people who didn’t bother to even vote won?  Well, they have now dictated many things.

They have dictated:

- A Harper minority.  Had they shown up in Newfoundland and Labrador, potentially Harper might have won a majority.  Had they shown up in Quebec, potentially Harper might have won a majority. Had they shown up in Vancouver Centre, Vancouver South, Wascana, Edmonton East, Burnaby-Douglas or even Western Arctic, Harper might have won a majority.

- A Bloc plurality and sustained relevance.  The Bloc were written off, with 12% decrease in support and no real appetite for a platform based on sovereignty.  In other words, the Bloc might have bled to the left, right and centre its support to all the other parties.  Instead, the 41% who stayed at home gave the Bloc an increased appearance in every riding, all the way down to Gatineau where the NDP might have made a second inroad by running an old Liberal.

- An NDP reduced appearance.  Had the 41% shown up, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar might have gone NDP, and perhaps even Vancouver Island North, Gatineau and St. Johns.  Of course, they didn’t vote, so none of these things happened.  The NDP’s clear re-alignment and targeted ridings did not materialise, because those 41% did not want it so.

- A secured Dion defeat and Liberal party leader replacement.  Had those 41% voted, Dion might not be on his way out as he clearly is.  Burnaby-Douglas might have materialised for the Libs, just like St. Pauls in Toronto or even Desenethe-Misinippi-Churchill River in Saskatchewan.  Who knows! The tide might have turned back in Edmonton Centre.

Why would I say those 41% would have actually mattered?  Because it’s fairly standard logic that the 41% would shake down as the vote was heading anyway in that riding, and that, in the favour of some of the losers and some of the winners, chances are the seats might have aligned this way or that, based on why these 41% were apathetic.  It wasn’t to be, and we’ll never know.

We do know, however, that the 41% who didn’t vote tend to be poorer, less educated and potentially busier (i.e. working two jobs with few rights) than those who did bother.  You rarely see the fabulously rich forgetting which side their bread is buttered on.  And those people tend to vote on the left side of the spectrum.

Sadly, it was not to be.  I am certain that the majority of Canadians would have preferred to not bother voting at all, as 41% didn’t.  The other 10-15% or so did out of some sort of national “duty” that pulled them that way, but secretly – or not! – they thought it was a waste of time.  I certainly did.  I cast a ballot in a riding that did not allow my NDP ballot to matter.  This first-past-the-post system is really fucked, and this election outcome continues to amplify it.  Of course, the Liberals and the Conservatives refuse to touch it, for every once and a while it delivers what they want, and need, to have their cake and eat it too: an eventual majority.

Something tells me the 41% plurality of this election have spoken just a little too loudly, however.  They want their cake.  They potentially need it.  We need to find the way to actually deliver it. That is why they won this election: their issue, the fact that it was about nothing, and thus was a waste of their money, is so resoundingly clear.